Trees Do Not Grow To The Moon

I reproduce here, a  note to my very good friend, Jordan Lindsey of Conquer Trading, at YouTube, as a comment at his last video titled:  Market View: Nasdaq & S&P 500 Technical Analysis, How Much Pullback Before You Buy?

‘Dear Sensei Jordan, I did some figures this morning, with both you and Michael Norman in mind (MMT, YouTube):
.


.
We ALL already know that valuations are at nosebleed levels. Yet its a matter of degree, not of kind. With no criticism to anyone here, for if we are to downgrade anyone, better it be me, not others or you. There just HAS to be more too it, than lines for support and resistance.  Nevertheless:
.
When you take any of the top ten ‘Go-go stocks’ such as TSLA, then of course the other biggie S&P companies such as AAPL, AMZN, MSFT, GOOG, FB, NVDA, NFLX, V, and PYPL, aggregate their market capitalization, comes to 7.75 trillion. Not for an economy. No. That would be too easy. A small set of dominators, in this oligopoly or plutocracy run by psychopaths (cf Chris Hedges, Dahr Jamail, Noam Chomsky, Stuart H. Scott, Paul Beckwith).
.
(yahoo finance. Just as we can say, Outlook is nearly the ONLY program MSFT ever sustained and managed not to completely ruin, with maybe Excel a close second, Yahoo managed to loose its excellence, yet their financial data reporting while not as good as what it used to be, is–like their sports data, still very good–quite good. cf ‘Income’ and Summary’).
.
Then aggregate the sales, which comes to 1.06 trillion, for a PSR of 7.7. Ten or twenty years ago, a price to sales ratio of 3.0 or 4.0 was considered VERY rich, say, for Peoplesoft or Siebel or Veritas, so on, among many good examples).
.
With the acceleration of change, and disintermediation of money, that has gone on–i.e. you deposit 1k to bank, they loan it out, then THAT money is loaned and the circle jerk just goes on, until nearly no one can remember, how it is that we got HERE. Not just inflation, but, so much money, which in turn, is turned into money, until nearly no one can quite remember, how it is, that we got here.

psr3
.
Yet if you take, the never mind, USA or EAFA or whatever poison you care to measure, lets say, THE planet is valued at 85 trillion (not now. Yes, I have it in Excel, not some stupid figure from USA Today or Huffington Post, etc), my own data. Call it 78, or 81, or 83 or 87, whatever, the comparisons remain and we place the super concentration into the NQ or Nasdaq 100 is placed into resolution:
.
The USA is about 40% of this, what I wryly like to call ‘the planet’. Gosh. Of that, about 80% is in the S&P 500, which means puts America at 34t, means SPX is 27 trillion (NYSE and Nasdaq. Used to be 8 or 9,000 public companies, now 6,450.
.
Here is where it gets interesting: in the S&P and has more or less been this way, since at least 1994, HALF the value of the S&P is occupied by no more than fifty companies, at times nearly forty. That puts us at $17,000,000,000,000 for THOSE forty or fifty companies. Of those, these ten are worth 7T.
.
Will not last. Its true I was up 330% for the last seven weeks, from starting capital. That is no longer true. Lets get real, keep it real. I am not perfect. After thirty years+, I am still not 100% in all ways. ‘Nothing is so expensive, as a real education’ (life education). And yet, I am not done yet. I see these numbers, and cannot believe, a PSR or 7 is permanent, no matter how breathless wonderful the Fed or Powell put is…
.
Lastly, not sure if it helps much, to add PG, HD, XOM, etc, but plan to compare these top 9 SPX companies–TSLA of course, duly NOT in the S&P, but will compare and report more, another day. Whatever it is, 7 x sales is an extreme abnormality. Means sales must double to get to 3.5 and as markets value goes up, and if it goes up, will not work in tandem, no more than GE, WSX, S, WCOM, AIG kept their mantle.
.
To be continued.

Knowledge manager, who can create, plan, furnish, operate, refine, and deliver complex processes involving people, products, results.

Tagged with: , , , , , ,
Posted in Financial

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

About David
David Korn Special Projects has over twenty years experience in the creation, planning, operation, delivery, and refinement of the complete life cycle of complex and demanding projects. These can involve people, results, or process. Projects can be for events, business planning, financial analysis, construction, litigation, or investment.
Contact Me
253 214-4282
Mon to Fri: 10 am to 4 pm, 7 to 9 pm
Giving Credit and Sharing Outrage
Click Image for Feature Interview: Podcast starts at 22:25
Follow David Korn Special Projects on WordPress.com
Tags
53 Folders 2020 Accessment Accountability Activism Advisory Analytics Approach Archiving Attaining Goals Attainments Authenticity Being Coachable Being Ready for the Next Time it Happens Biographic Bookings Breadth Brexit Broadcast Budgets and Schedules Building an Audiance Business Plan Business Planning Business Proces Business Summary Calendar Canada Capacity Capture Charity China Clarity Client Client Dinner Climate Climate Change Clinton versus Hillary Coaching Cold Calling Communications Communities Compassion Complex Adaptive Systems Comprehensive Conduct Confidence Confidentiality Conflict Conflicts Construction Litigation Contact Management Controls Counseling Creative Destructiveness Crisis CRM Curate Curation Custody Customer Satisfaction Databases Delivery Dependability Depression Detail Diplomacy Disaster Relief Discipline Distillation. Domain Name Domains Donors Dreams Economic and Ecological Collapse Editing Educator Effectiveness Engagement Enterprise Planning Entertainer Europe Evaluation Events Exceeding Expectations Executive Support Exhibitions Existence System Extinction Radio Facsimile Text File Folders Finance Financial Analysis Financial Suitability Fine Art Fircrest Fitness Forgiveness Framing Fund Raising Gene Gibson German Getting an Audiance Getting Better Getting Clear Getting Started Gig Harbor Globalization Google+ Google Docs Google Map Maker Process Google Maps Governance Guidance Guy McPherson Hall of Fame Having an Audiance Having a Plan Health Heuristics Higher Purpose Home Organization Honesty How I do It Humanitarian Human Potential Movement Professional Import-Export Imports Improvement Influencer Integration Integrity Interest Rates Interventions Interviews Investment Investment Advisory Jennifer Hynes Key Roles Knowledge Managment Language Translation Large Social Groups Leadership Learning Legal Localization Long Range Planning Love in Action Maharishi Mahesh Yogi Mahayana Major Client Major Media Major Roles Manufacturing Maps Market Analysis Medical Medical Doctor Meditation Mentoring Messaging Metrics Milestones Mistaken Love Monetary Policy Moving Powerpoint to Jpeg then to WordPress Mult-Culturalism Nasdaq 100 Near Term Human Extinction New Business New Website New Zealand Northern California Not-for-profit Notforprofit Nutrition Ocean Freight Forwarding Old Line Business Organization Organizations Outreach Outside the box Overhaul Overview Overwhelm Page Views Particular! Path of Guru Paul Beckwith PayPal Personal and Professional Effectiveness Personal Care Industry Personal Injury Perspective of the End User Phone Photography Phtography Pioneer Square Seattle Planning Podcasts Portfolio Management Port of Tacoma Post Covid-19 Problems Process Process Mapping Proctor Project Management Projects Promotions PSR-Price to Sales Ratio Quantitative Investing Radio Show Range Rapid Climate Change Rates Reaching Your Audiance Recording Production Records Recruitment Red-Flags Reduction Refining Your Audiance Refurbishment Regard Relationships Repatriation Representation Resignations Resolve Responsiveness Risk Sailing Sales Sales Managment Sales Process Sam Carana Saving Higher Energy Scientist Scope Sectors Securities Litigation Security Serious Activists Service Services Business Setting Goals Show Simple Websites Skills Social Media Sole Proprietor SoundCloud South King County Special Materials Special Projects Special Roles Sports Training Facility Staring out Start at the top Starting Startups Stock Analysis Stock Bubble Stocks Strategy Structure Struggle Summary Surveylance Sustainability Tacoma Tacoma WA Tactics Team Building Technology The Horizon Affect Those Who Really Get It Timing Todo List Tom Fallat Top Down Tracking Trading Transactions Trust Types of Assets Typology Unconventional Understanding Usability Very Particular View Count Viral Video Vision Warnings Web Development Web Site Redesign Website Redevelopment What I do What it takes Workstyles Wow Zen
Knowledge Management
Blog Stats
  • 9,362 hits
%d bloggers like this: